Monday, September 15, 2008

Palin's Favorability Ratings Plummet

Photo is of a McCain stop today... Home alone, John? Palin is campaigning alone in another state.

I refer you here and here to read, and they offer a bit of analysis on the figures.

Also a great new Obama ad, hard-hitting, on McCain's dirty campaigning. Super add. And backed up by the calls of the major media. Obama is keeping on track, he's back on message post GOP convention/Palin hubris, he's keeping his ads clean .

Four debates are coming up. They will be important. Obama will actually have a chance to respond to McCain. So will Biden to Palin.

My thoughts, for what they are worth:

1. I have always believed, and remain believing, that the sole purpose of Palin's pick was to energize and solidify the evangelical right. I think, now, many agree... and then there's the AND she is a woman part.

2. I thought they would heavily hit the maverick and change issues. They did. Now they are adding "reformer", or Maverick Reformers for change. Just remember and keep saying McCain--Bush. McCain--Bush. That's what this is all about.

3. They will continue with all the sexist nonsense. That won't be stopping, but not subjecting Palin to general media will continue to piss everyone off and at some point (as the NY Times has probably figured out, based on their whopping article of yesterday) if you aren't in a position to get one of those really special interviews... then perhaps you really ARE free to tell the truth (as they did a damn good job of!). Their strategy will backfire in a lot of ways.

4. Fox news' interview, as a reader points out, will be to reinforce her in the eyes of the public given she did not really do well through the Gibson pieces, especially on foreign affairs. Gibson wasn't nearly as squishy as people thought he would be.

5. She is campaigning separate from McCain right now--they need to cover a lot of bases. But whether she will be made available to the press, I really seriously doubt it. She cannot deal with press. It is a huge risk in the states where they need to press. Campaigning separately will also show that no one really likes McCain... he is alone... very alone most of the time at his stops especially in comparison to Palin. It also--as happened during time of her Gibson interviews--allowed for inconsistency of remarks/message given at or near the same time by the two candidates. (John said one thing on the view, palin said another in interview, both about HER position.)

6. They lost their momentum on Palin when she went back to Alaska (where there was a really nifty anti-palin protest) only to do the Gibson interviews which didn't help. If polling is indeed related to the interviews, and who knows if that is the case, one could argue they hurt her--badly. She should not have taken that break, but I am glad she did. Guess she had to memorize some new lines?

7. Will she be able to regain some of that momentum? Some, certainly not all. As more truth comes out, the non-evangelical vote will tip away (all things being equal!), which is what is starting to happen. Picking her so late gave them an advantage in her being unknown. But as time goes by--and media does their work--evidence is highlighting her truth stretching, lies, spins and her lack of knowledge. It may not shift much of anything in the evangelical vote, but it will shift others and already is shifting others. I take the view that we have two great people to go after here... both are very vulnerable.

8. 527s are starting to come out with their own hit pieces (e.g. on the topics of choice and ariel slaughter of wolves, for instance). Don't think for a minute that won't happen on McCain's side as well. There are already articles out there about millions set aside to swift boat Obama at a strategic time. Probably won't start right away given what I expect to see at the end when there is no opportunity to properly vett all the adds and educate the voters.

9. The GOP is at it again: already caging activities in purple states. If you get an absentee ballot in the mail, my suggestion is do not use it. They are sending out VERY tricky things including ballots with wrong return addresses, a wee little box at the bottom that, if missed, invalidates your votes, etc. Take your absentee ballots to your registrar and your media if you get them and you can find things wrong with them. I hope the national media will start doing some serious hit pieces on this. It will be a mess and could cost the election, which is, afterall, the whole point of their continued ballot box dishonesty.

10. With the announcement of economic gloom and doom--certainly helped along by Greenspan's comments, including the one that Iraq was just a political lie (and this by a 'pub)-- it will force the issue of economics onto the campaign stops more and more. The Lehman Bros. failure (not to mention the upcoming predictable failure of several major banks) will just add to the fire. Palin doesn't know economics. Obama does. Their messages will be VERY different, and no amount of "government reform" Palin proposes will fix that. Obama will shine here, and almost every expert who has looked at his tax plan, v. McCains says that Obama's is better for everyone BUT the extremely wealthy. McCain's favors the extremely wealthy (shocked, right?). The economy is not going to get better in the next 50 days. That will help Obama. He isn't the one that voted 90% of the time with Bush. Keep saying McCain and Bush in the same line. That's what this is all about, except farther to the right.

11. Bill Clinton and Hillary and others are hitting the trail for Obama. Great! Hillary has some work to do in the purple states.

12. Watch Rove carefully. He doesn't like McCain and is sending out some really weird messages. But given what we know about him, he is completely untrustworthy and always has a plan.

13. Remember, Palin is McCain's "best" pick and an example of his judgement. THAT is why we actually can go after Palin... and McCain. I love my dog, but I would want him driving a school bus.

Finally--Don't panic, remain calm, and work for the Obama campaign calling, or whatever they need! Send money. They have to flood with adds in important states. If you can get to a neighboring purple state to work, get with their campaign office to do so. (e.g. California to Nevada).

I really believe we can win this. Yes... I do. I really do believe it.

PHOTO CREDIT: Huffington Post